Japanese semiconductor Rapidus faces severe time limit. Experts warn that if the company cannot fully produce 2nm processes within two years, Japan will lose its strength in the global advanced process competition, and talent and technology may also be out of stock.
Rapidus has previously set the goal of achieving large-scale mass production in 2027, installed advanced EUV tools in 2024, and successfully tried to produce the first batch of 2nm in July this year. The Japanese government fully supports this plan, pledging to invest 1.7 trillion yen (about NT$11.5 billion) and invest another 10 billion yen (about NT$4.57 million) in 2025 to assist in expansion and technical research and development.
However, success in production does not mean that mass production is unreliable. Rapidus has not disclosed any yield data so far, and there are still huge gaps in technology maturity, supply chain integration and production capacity stability from trial production to mass production. Even with a large amount of government funds, it is impossible to guarantee that these challenges will be overcome in the short term. What's more, if you want to make a profitable production within two years, you must first lock up stable large customers. However, Samsung and Taiwan Power have been in the United States and enjoy the advantages of tax exemption and mature supply chains. It is difficult for Rapidus to enter the market.
Once the mass production plan fails, Japanese semiconductor and material companies may be forced to go overseas factories, which will not only accelerate the outflow of talents and technologies, but may also allow other countries to master the key knowledge of advanced processes and further weaken Japan's strategic position in the global semiconductor industry.
Recently, the secret leak incident of NTU 2 nanometer process unexpectedly attracted attention, and photos of key process flowed into Rapidus' hands. Although a single piece of the data is not enough to directly copy the complete technology, if these data are truly valuable, it may shorten the research and development period of Rapidus to a certain extent.
Japan’s Rapidus Has Two Years To Begin 2nm Mass Production, Claims Researcher, And If There Are Setbacks, The Region Will Lose The Technical Advantage To Taiwan’s TSMC And South Korea’s Samsung Extended reading: Taiwan Electric 2 nanometer leak case investigation may cause shock in semiconductor equipment industry